“Francois Hollande” or “Homo Economicus Has Left the Room”

Many people may be forgiven for forgetting that France is one of the Worlds great nations. Let’s gloss over some of France’s economic credentials. Fifth largest nominal GDP, ninth largest in PPP adjusted terms and second largest economy in the European Union. Fifth largest exporter in the World, with over half a trillion of exports annually. Member of the G8 countries, G20 group, OECD, 3 highest military spending and second largest gross foreign aid provider. Needless to say this stature and success has arisen because of the hard work, industriousness, and entrepreneurial spirit of the French people. The French people while reveling in their stature are much more cynical about their successes at home. Most Frenchmen speak of the “Glorious Thirty” and the “Twenty Pitiful” years, eras of post-war economic boom and subsequent economic stagnant malaise. Much attention and commentary is dedicated in political and intellectual circles to restoring the lost equilibrium of previous times of plenty. Much media analysis revolves around the stagnant fortunes of the French way of life and the middle class’ dwindling standard of living.

The French are also quite the political people. A country were successive constitutions have put the onus of wealth creation on governments and on individuals but only through their political choices. France thus, has seen successive ideologies and political currents wrestle with the central question of balancing collective wealth and well being with that of the individual. One might assume that through its rich political and governmental experiences certain lessons of history might have been learned. Moreover, the French being great internationalists and multilateralists, one might further assume that the country strives to benefit from the experience of its fellow nations with regard to its great equity dilemma. One would seemingly be wrong to assume these things. The popularity of France’s current presidential candidate front-runner would leave any Homo economicus perplexed.

The first big splash by the ‘Parti Socialiste’ presidential candidate came when he announced on live television that he wanted to impose a 75% top marginal income tax rate for revenues over a million euros. Other policies announced supposed to reduce ‘inequality’ were; maximum lowest paid worker to CEO salary ratio of 1 to 20 and a new tax bracket from 150 000 euros to 1 000 000 at a higher 45% marginal rate. In Hollande’s campaign platform other musings are added to the effect of reducing income tax deductibles for the wealthy. Now what might be the effect of such policies (aside from giving Swiss bankers a collective orgasm). One effect would be to vilify the wealthy, to the point where many might leave. Since most wealthy people (first generation at least) are entrepreneurial and industrious business builders, maybe the intention is to reduce wealth and job creation. One French daily has aptly called the phenomenon “Fiscal Exodus”. If the Laffer curve remains partially correct the number of wealthy Frenchmen in Brussels, Geneva and London may continue to swell.

Ultimately this measure is only for show. It only serves the populist and demagogic purposes of insuring the poor and disenfranchised vote with the socialist. A Hollande aide confessed that the measure might only bring in 250 million extra euros to the treasury. A policy that is sure to impact the treasury much more severely will be the promise to return the minimum retirement age back to 60 years of age. The present right of center french administration pushed through an increase in the minimum legally guaranteed retirement age to 62 from sixty back in 2010. The measure was put into place to more or less avoid a Greek fiscal fiasco when baby boomers begin to retire ‘en masse’. Francois Hollande plans to jettison that law, because he believes apparently believes that for every 2 years worked in one’s life, one deserves a year of retirement on average (something of a generalization but mathematically factual none the less). Add on to that policy his intention to re-tinker the corporate tax rate (35% for large co.’s and as low as 15% for very small enterprises) this would cement France’s third place in the highest corporate tax rates for industrialized nations category. Combine the fact that progressiveness in corporate tax rates is just an incentive for small corporations to generate a maximum of dividend by not reinvesting profits into growth and the fact those marginal rates are going up, it would seem the French Socialist Party is on a war against international competitiveness!

While the above policies don’t really hold up to current economic thought standards they can be forgiven as staples of the Left’s campaigning. The policies that really drive me up the wall are Holland’s policies towards the Euro. The first policy is one of negotiating a new fiscal treaty where Euro bonds would be issued. With benchmark French 10 year bonds yielding over 90 basis points over similar maturity German Bunds, the trans-Rhine cash grab is barely veiled. No wonder Angela Merkel does not want to meet her greedy potential counterpart. The second Euro Zone focused policy is even more morally hazardous than the first. The socialist candidate wants the ECB to adopt a dual mandate of inflation targeting and growth promotion. Never mind the moral hazard of bailing out broke Euro members, has nobody in the socialist party opened a Monetary Policy introductory class book in the last 20 years? Since the early 1990′s central bank after central bank have shifted their monetary policy objectives from currency targeting and growth maximization to inflation targeting with invariably positive results. For a leading candidate to the highest public office of one the greatest nations of the World, to have such a crass and laymen understanding of fundamental economics is astounding to say the least.

So, while arguably the most archaic central bank of them all (the Fed) moves towards greater transparency and is subtly shifting its policy onus from a balance between inflation and growth towards inflation targeting, the French socialists want the ECB to move 20 years backward and forsake its stellar inflation record. Hollande could just as well shout out “To hell with responsibility and orthodoxy”. Let’s hope that sober economic thought prevails at the end of this campaign, because so far it’s only been mired in intellectual mediocrity.

Shout out to our Ghanaian readers!

Cius